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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 247.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Glob+Health+Res+Policy 2020 ; 5 (ä): 30 Nephropedia Template TP
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Influence of population mobility on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic: based on panel data from Hubei, China #MMPMID32518832
Jiang J; Luo L
Glob Health Res Policy 2020[]; 5 (ä): 30 PMID32518832show ga
BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China. The mass population mobility in China during the Spring Festival has been considered a driver to the transmission of COVID-19, but it still needs more empirical discussion. METHODS: Based on the panel data from Hubei, China between January 6th and February 6th, 2020, a random effects model was used to estimate the impact of population mobility on the transmission of COVID-19. Stata version 12.0 was used, and p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The COVID-19 was more likely to be confirmed within 11-12 days after people moved from Wuhan to 16 other prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province, which suggests a period of 11-12 days from contact to being confirmed. The daily confirmed cases and daily increment in incidence in 16 prefecture-level cities show obvious declines 9-12 days post adaptation of city lockdown at the local level. CONCLUSION: Population mobility is found to be a driver to the rapid transmission of COVID-19, and the lockdown intervention in local prefecture-level cities of Hubei Province has been an effective strategy to block the COVID-19 epidemic.