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10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.049

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.049
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32470603!7250076!32470603
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32470603      Int+J+Infect+Dis 2020 ; 96 (ä): 519-523
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  • Early network properties of the COVID-19 pandemic - The Chinese scenario #MMPMID32470603
  • Rivas AL; Febles JL; Smith SD; Hoogesteijn AL; Tegos GP; Fasina FO; Hittner JB
  • Int J Infect Dis 2020[Jul]; 96 (ä): 519-523 PMID32470603show ga
  • OBJECTIVES: To control epidemics, sites more affected by mortality should be identified. METHODS: Defining epidemic nodes as areas that included both most fatalities per time unit and connections, such as highways, geo-temporal Chinese data on the COVID-19 epidemic were investigated with linear, logarithmic, power, growth, exponential, and logistic regression models. A z-test compared the slopes observed. RESULTS: Twenty provinces suspected to act as epidemic nodes were empirically investigated. Five provinces displayed synchronicity, long-distance connections, directionality and assortativity - network properties that helped discriminate epidemic nodes. The rank I node included most fatalities and was activated first. Fewer deaths were reported, later, by rank II and III nodes, while the data from rank I-III nodes exhibited slopes, the data from the remaining provinces did not. The power curve was the best fitting model for all slopes. Because all pairs (rank I vs. rank II, rank I vs. rank III, and rank II vs. rank III) of epidemic nodes differed statistically, rank I-III epidemic nodes were geo-temporally and statistically distinguishable. CONCLUSIONS: The geo-temporal progression of epidemics seems to be highly structured. Epidemic network properties can distinguish regions that differ in mortality. This real-time geo-referenced analysis can inform both decision-makers and clinicians.
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |China/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/mortality[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Logistic Models[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/mortality[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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