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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Medwave 2020 ; 20 (4): e7898 Nephropedia Template TP
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Proyeccion epidemiologica de COVID-19 en Chile basado en el modelo SEIR generalizado y el concepto de recuperado #MMPMID32469853
Guerrero-Nancuante C; Manriquez P R
Medwave 2020[May]; 20 (4): e7898 PMID32469853show ga
The COVID-19 pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) has generated a wide-ranging debate regarding epidemiological forecasts and the global implications. With the data obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health (MINSAL), a prospective study was carried out using the generalized SEIR model to estimate the course of COVID-19 in Chile. Three scenarios were estimated: Scenario 1 with official MINSAL data; scenario 2 with official MINSAL data and recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health; and scenario 3 with official MINSAL data, recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health, and without considering deaths in the total recovered. There are considerable differences between scenario 1 compared to 2 and 3 in the number of deaths, active patients, and duration of the disease. Scenario 3, considered the most adverse, estimates a total of 11,000 infected people, 1,151 deaths, and that the peak of the disease will occur in the first days of May. We concluded that the concept of recovered may be decisive for the epidemiological forecasts of COVID-19 in Chile.