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10.1503/cmaj.200711

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1503/cmaj.200711
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32444481!7828851!32444481
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32444481      CMAJ 2020 ; 192 (25): E666-E670
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  • Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States #MMPMID32444481
  • Abdollahi E; Champredon D; Langley JM; Galvani AP; Moghadas SM
  • CMAJ 2020[Jun]; 192 (25): E666-E670 PMID32444481show ga
  • BACKGROUND: Estimates of the case-fatality rate (CFR) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vary widely in different population settings. We sought to estimate and compare the COVID-19 CFR in Canada and the United States while adjusting for 2 potential biases in crude CFR. METHODS: We used the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Canada and the US from Jan. 31 to Apr. 22, 2020. We applied a statistical method to minimize bias in the crude CFR by accounting for the survival interval as the lag time between disease onset and death, while considering reporting rates of COVID-19 cases less than 50% (95% confidence interval 10%-50%). RESULTS: Using data for confirmed cases in Canada, we estimated the crude CFR to be 4.9% on Apr. 22, 2020, and the adjusted CFR to be 5.5% (credible interval [CrI] 4.9%-6.4%). After we accounted for various reporting rates less than 50%, the adjusted CFR was estimated at 1.6% (CrI 0.7%-3.1%). The US crude CFR was estimated to be 5.4% on Apr. 20, 2020, with an adjusted CFR of 6.1% (CrI 5.4%-6.9%). With reporting rates of less than 50%, the adjusted CFR for the US was 1.78 (CrI 0.8%-3.6%). INTERPRETATION: Our estimates suggest that, if the reporting rate is less than 50%, the adjusted CFR of COVID-19 in Canada is likely to be less than 2%. The CFR estimates for the US were higher than those for Canada, but the adjusted CFR still remained below 2%. Quantification of case reporting can provide a more accurate measure of the virulence and disease burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
  • |Betacoronavirus/*pathogenicity[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Canada/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*mortality[MESH]
  • |Disease Outbreaks/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Incidence[MESH]
  • |Pandemics/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*mortality[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Time Factors[MESH]


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