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10.3389/fmed.2020.00169 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.3389/fmed.2020.00169 32435645!7218168!32435645     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Front+Med+(Lausanne) 2020 ; 7 (ä): 169 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32435645|t=2020. Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared With Hunan, China |pdf=|usr=}}{{32435645}} gab.com Text Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared With Hunan, China JO: Front Med (Lausanne) http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32435645 #FOAvip Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently a global public health threat. Outside of China, Italy is one of the countries suffering the most with the COVID-19 epidemic. It is important to predict the epidemic trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy to help develop public health strategies. Methods: We used time-series data of COVID-19 from Jan 22 2020 to Apr 02 2020. An infectious disease dynamic extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model, which covers the effects of different intervention measures in dissimilar periods, was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Italy. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CI). Hunan, with a similar total population number to Italy, was used as a comparative item. Results: In the eSIR model, we estimated that the mean of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 was 4.34 (95% CI, 3.04-6.00) in Italy and 3.16 (95% CI, 1.73-5.25) in Hunan. There would be a total of 182 051 infected cases (95%CI:116 114-274 378) under the current country blockade and the endpoint would be Aug 05 in Italy. Conclusion: Italy's current strict measures can efficaciously prevent the further spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained. Necessary strict public health measures should be implemented as soon as possible in other European countries with a high number of COVID-19 cases. The most effective strategy needs to be confirmed in further studies. Twit Text FOAVip Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared With Hunan, China ????Front Med (Lausanne) http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32435645 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32435645 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32435645}}</ref> Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared With Hunan, China #MMPMID32435645 Wangping J; Ke H; Yang S; Wenzhe C; Shengshu W; Shanshan Y; Jianwei W; Fuyin K; Penggang T; Jing L; Miao L; Yao H Front Med (Lausanne) 2020[]; 7 (ä): 169 PMID32435645show ga Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently a global public health threat. Outside of China, Italy is one of the countries suffering the most with the COVID-19 epidemic. It is important to predict the epidemic trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy to help develop public health strategies. Methods: We used time-series data of COVID-19 from Jan 22 2020 to Apr 02 2020. An infectious disease dynamic extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model, which covers the effects of different intervention measures in dissimilar periods, was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Italy. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CI). Hunan, with a similar total population number to Italy, was used as a comparative item. Results: In the eSIR model, we estimated that the mean of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 was 4.34 (95% CI, 3.04-6.00) in Italy and 3.16 (95% CI, 1.73-5.25) in Hunan. There would be a total of 182 051 infected cases (95%CI:116 114-274 378) under the current country blockade and the endpoint would be Aug 05 in Italy. Conclusion: Italy's current strict measures can efficaciously prevent the further spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained. Necessary strict public health measures should be implemented as soon as possible in other European countries with a high number of COVID-19 cases. The most effective strategy needs to be confirmed in further studies. äExtended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy an(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing