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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Int+J+Infect+Dis 2020 ; 96 (ä): 454-457 Nephropedia Template TP
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Evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic outbreak caused by temporal contact-increase in South Korea #MMPMID32417246
Kim S; Jeong YD; Byun JH; Cho G; Park A; Jung JH; Roh Y; Choi S; Muhammad IM; Jung IH
Int J Infect Dis 2020[Jul]; 96 (ä): 454-457 PMID32417246show ga
OBJECTIVES: On March 15, 2020, 61.3% of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection in South Korea are associated with the worship service that was organized on February 9 in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu. We aim to evaluate the effects of mass infection in South Korea and assess the preventive control intervention. METHOD: Using openly available data of daily cumulative confirmed cases and deaths, the basic and effective reproduction numbers was estimated using a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-type epidemic model. RESULTS: The basic reproduction number was estimated to be R(0)=1.77. The effective reproduction number increased approximately 20 times after the mass infections from the 31 st patient, which was confirmed on February 9 in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, Daegu. However, the effective reproduction number decreased to less than unity after February 28 owing to the implementation of high-level preventive control interventions in South Korea, coupled with voluntary prevention actions by citizens. CONCLUSION: Preventive action and control intervention were successfully established in South Korea.