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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Sci+Total+Environ 2020 ; 728 (ä): 138834 Nephropedia Template TP
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Can we predict the occurrence of COVID-19 cases? Considerations using a simple model of growth #MMPMID32334161
Cassaro FAM; Pires LF
Sci Total Environ 2020[Aug]; 728 (ä): 138834 PMID32334161show ga
This study aimed to present a simple model to follow the evolution of the COVID-19 (CV-19) pandemic in different countries. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) and its first derivative were employed for this task. The simulations showed that it is almost impossible to predict based on the initial CV-19 cases (1st 2nd or 3rd weeks) how the pandemic will evolve. However, the results presented here revealed that this approach can be used as an alternative for the exponential growth model, traditionally employed as a prediction model, and serve as a valuable tool for investigating how protective measures are changing the evolution of the pandemic.