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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 247.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Int+J+Infect+Dis 2020 ; 95 (ä): 308-310 Nephropedia Template TP
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Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020 #MMPMID32334115
Zhuang Z; Zhao S; Lin Q; Cao P; Lou Y; Yang L; Yang S; He D; Xiao L
Int J Infect Dis 2020[Jun]; 95 (ä): 308-310 PMID32334115show ga
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R(0) as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.