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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 J+Med+Virol 2020 ; 92 (10): 1988-1994 Nephropedia Template TP
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Optimization of group size in pool testing strategy for SARS-CoV-2: A simple mathematical model #MMPMID32330297
Aragon-Caqueo D; Fernandez-Salinas J; Laroze D
J Med Virol 2020[Oct]; 92 (10): 1988-1994 PMID32330297show ga
Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has reached unprecedented pandemic levels and is affecting almost every country in the world. Ramping up the testing capacity of a country supposes an essential public health response to this new outbreak. A pool testing strategy where multiple samples are tested in a single reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) kit could potentially increase a country's testing capacity. The aim of this study is to propose a simple mathematical model to estimate the optimum number of pooled samples according to the relative prevalence of positive tests in a particular healthcare context, assuming that if a group tests negative, no further testing is done whereas if a group tests positive, all the subjects of the group are retested individually. The model predicts group sizes that range from 11 to 3 subjects. For a prevalence of 10% of positive tests, 40.6% of tests can be saved using testing groups of four subjects. For a 20% prevalence, 17.9% of tests can be saved using groups of three subjects. For higher prevalences, the strategy flattens and loses effectiveness. Pool testing individuals for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is a valuable strategy that could considerably boost a country's testing capacity. However, further studies are needed to address how large these groups can be, without losing sensitivity on the RT-PCR. The strategy best works in settings with a low prevalence of positive tests. It is best implemented in subgroups with low clinical suspicion. The model can be adapted to specific prevalences, generating a tailored to the context implementation of the pool testing strategy.