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10.1073/pnas.2004978117 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1073/pnas.2004978117 32327608!7229754!32327608     free     free     free Warning: file_get_contents(https://eutils.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&id=32327608&cmd=llinks): Failed to open stream: HTTP request failed! HTTP/1.1 429 Too Many Requests in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 215 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Proc+Natl+Acad+Sci+U+S+A 2020 ; 117 (19): 10484-10491 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32327608|t=2020. Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures |pdf=|usr=}}{{32327608}} gab.com Text Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures JO: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32327608 #FOAvip The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number ([Formula: see text] = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures. Twit Text FOAVip Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures ????Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32327608 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32327608 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32327608}}</ref> Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures #MMPMID32327608 Gatto M; Bertuzzo E; Mari L; Miccoli S; Carraro L; Casagrandi R; Rinaldo A Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020[May]; 117 (19): 10484-10491 PMID32327608show ga The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number ([Formula: see text] = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures. |Basic Reproduction Number[MESH] |Betacoronavirus[MESH] |COVID-19[MESH] |Communicable Disease Control/*methods[MESH] |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/*prevention & control/transmission[MESH] |Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Italy/epidemiology[MESH] |Models, Theoretical[MESH] |Pandemics/*prevention & control[MESH] |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/*prevention & control/transmission[MESH]Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emer(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing