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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Emerg+Microbes+Infect 2020 ; 9 (1): 988-990 Nephropedia Template TP
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Impact of population movement on the spread of 2019-nCoV in China #MMPMID32321369
Zhang C; Chen C; Shen W; Tang F; Lei H; Xie Y; Cao Z; Tang K; Bai J; Xiao L; Xu Y; Song Y; Chen J; Guo Z; Guo Y; Wang X; Xu M; Zou H; Shu Y; Du X
Emerg Microbes Infect 2020[Dec]; 9 (1): 988-990 PMID32321369show ga
Since Dec 2019, China has experienced an outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV. A travel ban was implemented for Wuhan, Hubei on Jan 23 to slow down the outbreak. We found a significant positive correlation between population influx from Wuhan and confirmed cases in other cities across China (R(2) = 0.85, P < 0.001), especially cities in Hubei (R(2) = 0.88, P < 0.001). Removing the travel restriction would have increased 118% (91%-172%) of the overall cases for the coming week, and a travel ban taken three days or a week earlier would have reduced 47% (26%-58%) and 83% (78%-89%) of the early cases. We would expect a 61% (48%-92%) increase of overall cumulative cases without any restrictions on returning residents, and 11% (8%-16%) increase if the travel ban stays in place for Hubei. Cities from Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Capital Economic Circle regions are at higher risk.