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10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30026-1

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30026-1
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32309796!7158945!32309796
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32309796      Lancet+Digit+Health 2020 ; 2 (4): e201-e208
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  • Early epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak based on crowdsourced data: a population-level observational study #MMPMID32309796
  • Sun K; Chen J; Viboud C
  • Lancet Digit Health 2020[Apr]; 2 (4): e201-e208 PMID32309796show ga
  • BACKGROUND: As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) progresses, epidemiological data are needed to guide situational awareness and intervention strategies. Here we describe efforts to compile and disseminate epidemiological information on COVID-19 from news media and social networks. METHODS: In this population-level observational study, we searched DXY.cn, a health-care-oriented social network that is currently streaming news reports on COVID-19 from local and national Chinese health agencies. We compiled a list of individual patients with COVID-19 and daily province-level case counts between Jan 13 and Jan 31, 2020, in China. We also compiled a list of internationally exported cases of COVID-19 from global news media sources (Kyodo News, The Straits Times, and CNN), national governments, and health authorities. We assessed trends in the epidemiology of COVID-19 and studied the outbreak progression across China, assessing delays between symptom onset, seeking care at a hospital or clinic, and reporting, before and after Jan 18, 2020, as awareness of the outbreak increased. All data were made publicly available in real time. FINDINGS: We collected data for 507 patients with COVID-19 reported between Jan 13 and Jan 31, 2020, including 364 from mainland China and 143 from outside of China. 281 (55%) patients were male and the median age was 46 years (IQR 35-60). Few patients (13 [3%]) were younger than 15 years and the age profile of Chinese patients adjusted for baseline demographics confirmed a deficit of infections among children. Across the analysed period, delays between symptom onset and seeking care at a hospital or clinic were longer in Hubei province than in other provinces in mainland China and internationally. In mainland China, these delays decreased from 5 days before Jan 18, 2020, to 2 days thereafter until Jan 31, 2020 (p=0.0009). Although our sample captures only 507 (5.2%) of 9826 patients with COVID-19 reported by official sources during the analysed period, our data align with an official report published by Chinese authorities on Jan 28, 2020. INTERPRETATION: News reports and social media can help reconstruct the progression of an outbreak and provide detailed patient-level data in the context of a health emergency. The availability of a central physician-oriented social network facilitated the compilation of publicly available COVID-19 data in China. As the outbreak progresses, social media and news reports will probably capture a diminishing fraction of COVID-19 cases globally due to reporting fatigue and overwhelmed health-care systems. In the early stages of an outbreak, availability of public datasets is important to encourage analytical efforts by independent teams and provide robust evidence to guide interventions. FUNDING: Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health.
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Age Factors[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Aged, 80 and over[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*epidemiology/mortality[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Child, Preschool[MESH]
  • |China/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Crowdsourcing/methods/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Infant[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Models, Statistical[MESH]
  • |Sex Factors[MESH]


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