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10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109761 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109761 32308258!7156225!32308258     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Chaos+Solitons+Fractals 2020 ; 134 (ä): 109761 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32308258|t=2020. Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France |pdf=|usr=}}{{32308258}} gab.com Text Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France JO: Chaos Solitons Fractals http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32308258 #FOAvip In this note we analyze the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China, Italy and France in the time window 22/01 - 15/03/2020 . A first analysis of simple day-lag maps points to some universality in the epidemic spreading, suggesting that simple mean-field models can be meaningfully used to gather a quantitative picture of the epidemic spreading, and notably the height and time of the peak of confirmed infected individuals. The analysis of the same data within a simple susceptible-infected-recovered-deaths model indicates that the kinetic parameter that describes the rate of recovery seems to be the same, irrespective of the country, while the infection and death rates appear to be more variable. The model places the peak in Italy around March 21(st) 2020, with a peak number of infected individuals of about 26000 (not including recovered and dead) and a number of deaths at the end of the epidemics of about 18,000. Since the confirmed cases are believed to be between 10 and 20% of the real number of individuals who eventually get infected, the apparent mortality rate of COVID-19 falls between 4% and 8% in Italy, while it appears substantially lower, between 1% and 3% in China. Based on our calculations, we estimate that 2500 ventilation units should represent a fair figure for the peak requirement to be considered by health authorities in Italy for their strategic planning. Finally, a simulation of the effects of drastic containment measures on the outbreak in Italy indicates that a reduction of the infection rate indeed causes a quench of the epidemic peak. However, it is also seen that the infection rate needs to be cut down drastically and quickly to observe an appreciable decrease of the epidemic peak and mortality rate. This appears only possible through a concerted and disciplined, albeit painful, effort of the population as a whole. Twit Text FOAVip Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France ????Chaos Solitons Fractals http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32308258 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32308258 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32308258}}</ref> Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France #MMPMID32308258 Fanelli D; Piazza F Chaos Solitons Fractals 2020[May]; 134 (ä): 109761 PMID32308258show ga In this note we analyze the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China, Italy and France in the time window 22/01 - 15/03/2020 . A first analysis of simple day-lag maps points to some universality in the epidemic spreading, suggesting that simple mean-field models can be meaningfully used to gather a quantitative picture of the epidemic spreading, and notably the height and time of the peak of confirmed infected individuals. The analysis of the same data within a simple susceptible-infected-recovered-deaths model indicates that the kinetic parameter that describes the rate of recovery seems to be the same, irrespective of the country, while the infection and death rates appear to be more variable. The model places the peak in Italy around March 21(st) 2020, with a peak number of infected individuals of about 26000 (not including recovered and dead) and a number of deaths at the end of the epidemics of about 18,000. Since the confirmed cases are believed to be between 10 and 20% of the real number of individuals who eventually get infected, the apparent mortality rate of COVID-19 falls between 4% and 8% in Italy, while it appears substantially lower, between 1% and 3% in China. Based on our calculations, we estimate that 2500 ventilation units should represent a fair figure for the peak requirement to be considered by health authorities in Italy for their strategic planning. Finally, a simulation of the effects of drastic containment measures on the outbreak in Italy indicates that a reduction of the infection rate indeed causes a quench of the epidemic peak. However, it is also seen that the infection rate needs to be cut down drastically and quickly to observe an appreciable decrease of the epidemic peak and mortality rate. This appears only possible through a concerted and disciplined, albeit painful, effort of the population as a whole. äAnalysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing