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10.1016/j.mjafi.2020.03.022 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.mjafi.2020.03.022 32292232!7126697!32292232     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Med+J+Armed+Forces+India 2020 ; 76 (2): 147-155 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32292232|t=2020. Healthcare impact of COVID-19 epidemic in India: A stochastic mathematical model |pdf=|usr=}}{{32292232}} gab.com Text Healthcare impact of COVID-19 epidemic in India: A stochastic mathematical model JO: Med J Armed Forces India http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32292232 #FOAvip BACKGROUND: In India, the SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 epidemic has grown to 1251 cases and 32 deaths as on 30 Mar 2020. The healthcare impact of the epidemic in India was studied using a stochastic mathematical model. METHODS: A compartmental SEIR model was developed, in which the flow of individuals through compartments is modeled using a set of differential equations. Different scenarios were modeled with 1000 runs of Monte Carlo simulation each using MATLAB. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) requirements, and deaths were modeled on SimVoi software. The impact of nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) including social distancing and lockdown on checking the epidemic was estimated. RESULTS: Uninterrupted epidemic in India would have resulted in more than 364 million cases and 1.56 million deaths with peak by mid-July. As per the model, at current growth rate of 1.15, India is likely to reach approximately 3 million cases by 25 May, implying 125,455 (+/-18,034) hospitalizations, 26,130 (+/-3298) ICU admissions, and 13,447 (+/-1819) deaths. This would overwhelm India's healthcare system. The model shows that with immediate institution of NPIs, the epidemic might still be checked by mid-April 2020. It would then result in 241,974 (+/-33,735) total infections, 10,214 (+/-1649) hospitalizations, 2121 (+/-334) ICU admissions, and 1081 (+/-169) deaths. CONCLUSION: At the current growth rate of epidemic, India's healthcare resources will be overwhelmed by the end of May. With the immediate institution of NPIs, total cases, hospitalizations, ICU requirements, and deaths can be reduced by almost 90%. Twit Text FOAVip Healthcare impact of COVID-19 epidemic in India: A stochastic mathematical model ????Med J Armed Forces India http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32292232 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32292232 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32292232}}</ref> Healthcare impact of COVID-19 epidemic in India: A stochastic mathematical model #MMPMID32292232 Chatterjee K; Chatterjee K; Kumar A; Shankar S Med J Armed Forces India 2020[Apr]; 76 (2): 147-155 PMID32292232show ga BACKGROUND: In India, the SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 epidemic has grown to 1251 cases and 32 deaths as on 30 Mar 2020. The healthcare impact of the epidemic in India was studied using a stochastic mathematical model. METHODS: A compartmental SEIR model was developed, in which the flow of individuals through compartments is modeled using a set of differential equations. Different scenarios were modeled with 1000 runs of Monte Carlo simulation each using MATLAB. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) requirements, and deaths were modeled on SimVoi software. The impact of nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) including social distancing and lockdown on checking the epidemic was estimated. RESULTS: Uninterrupted epidemic in India would have resulted in more than 364 million cases and 1.56 million deaths with peak by mid-July. As per the model, at current growth rate of 1.15, India is likely to reach approximately 3 million cases by 25 May, implying 125,455 (+/-18,034) hospitalizations, 26,130 (+/-3298) ICU admissions, and 13,447 (+/-1819) deaths. This would overwhelm India's healthcare system. The model shows that with immediate institution of NPIs, the epidemic might still be checked by mid-April 2020. It would then result in 241,974 (+/-33,735) total infections, 10,214 (+/-1649) hospitalizations, 2121 (+/-334) ICU admissions, and 1081 (+/-169) deaths. CONCLUSION: At the current growth rate of epidemic, India's healthcare resources will be overwhelmed by the end of May. With the immediate institution of NPIs, total cases, hospitalizations, ICU requirements, and deaths can be reduced by almost 90%. äHealthcare impact of COVID-19 epidemic in India: A stochastic mathemat(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing