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10.1503/cmaj.200457

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1503/cmaj.200457
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32269020!7234264!32269020
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32269020      CMAJ 2020 ; 192 (19): E489-E496
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  • Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada #MMPMID32269020
  • Shoukat A; Wells CR; Langley JM; Singer BH; Galvani AP; Moghadas SM
  • CMAJ 2020[May]; 192 (19): E489-E496 PMID32269020show ga
  • BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Canada may create substantial demand for hospital admission and critical care. We evaluated the extent to which self-isolation of mildly ill people delays the peak of outbreaks and reduces the need for this care in each Canadian province. METHODS: We developed a computational model and simulated scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks within each province. Using estimates of COVID-19 characteristics, we projected the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) bed requirements without self-isolation, assuming an average number of 2.5 secondary cases, and compared scenarios in which different proportions of mildly ill people practised self-isolation 24 hours after symptom onset. RESULTS: Without self-isolation, the peak of outbreaks would occur in the first half of June, and an average of 569 ICU bed days per 10 000 population would be needed. When 20% of cases practised self-isolation, the peak was delayed by 2-4 weeks, and ICU bed requirement was reduced by 23.5% compared with no self-isolation. Increasing self-isolation to 40% reduced ICU use by 53.6% and delayed the peak of infection by an additional 2-4 weeks. Assuming current ICU bed occupancy rates above 80% and self-isolation of 40%, demand would still exceed available (unoccupied) ICU bed capacity. INTERPRETATION: At the peak of COVID-19 outbreaks, the need for ICU beds will exceed the total number of ICU beds even with self-isolation at 40%. Our results show the coming challenge for the health care system in Canada and the potential role of self-isolation in reducing demand for hospital-based and ICU care.
  • |Bed Occupancy/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Canada/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology/*therapy[MESH]
  • |Critical Care/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Disease Outbreaks[MESH]
  • |Health Services Needs and Demand/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Hospital Bed Capacity/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Models, Statistical[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]


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