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10.3201/eid2607.200282

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.3201/eid2607.200282
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32255761!7323562!32255761
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32255761      Emerg+Infect+Dis 2020 ; 26 (7): 1470-1477
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  • High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 #MMPMID32255761
  • Sanche S; Lin YT; Xu C; Romero-Severson E; Hengartner N; Ke R
  • Emerg Infect Dis 2020[Jul]; 26 (7): 1470-1477 PMID32255761show ga
  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R(0)) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R(0) value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
  • |*Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |Basic Reproduction Number[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |China/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/prevention & control/transmission[MESH]
  • |Disease Outbreaks[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Models, Theoretical[MESH]
  • |Pandemics/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/prevention & control/transmission[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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