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10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
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32234117!7118340!32234117
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32234117      Euro+Surveill 2020 ; 25 (12): ä
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  • Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020 #MMPMID32234117
  • Guzzetta G; Poletti P; Ajelli M; Trentini F; Marziano V; Cereda D; Tirani M; Diurno G; Bodina A; Barone A; Crottogini L; Gramegna M; Melegaro A; Merler S
  • Euro Surveill 2020[Mar]; 25 (12): ä PMID32234117show ga
  • Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
  • |*Coronavirus[MESH]
  • |*Disease Outbreaks[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/transmission[MESH]
  • |Disease Notification/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Italy/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/transmission[MESH]


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