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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 247.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Medwave 2020 ; 20 (2): e7861 Nephropedia Template TP
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Numero de casos COVID-19 en Chile a 120 dias con datos al 21/03/2020 y umbral del esfuerzo diario para aplanar la epi-curva #MMPMID32225133
Medwave 2020[Mar]; 20 (2): e7861 PMID32225133show ga
We present a straightforward projection with data up to 21/03/2020 of the evolution of the number of COVID-19 cases per day in Chile using data from the Ministry of Health. Assuming an arithmetical growth in the second variation of the data, we present a cubic adjustment model in which we estimate over 100 000 cases at 120 days consistent with the data recorded to date. Furthermore, we use an exponential total case model to represent (using a parameter) the daily effort to reduce a high initial daily growth rate. We simulate this model with different numerical scenarios of feasibility and desired future prevalence.