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10.1093/jtm/taaa037

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1093/jtm/taaa037
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32181488!7184469!32181488
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32181488      J+Travel+Med 2020 ; 27 (3): ä
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  • The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China #MMPMID32181488
  • Lau H; Khosrawipour V; Kocbach P; Mikolajczyk A; Schubert J; Bania J; Khosrawipour T
  • J Travel Med 2020[May]; 27 (3): ä PMID32181488show ga
  • BACKGROUND: With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China. China itself has imposed a lockdown of the population of Wuhan as well as the entire Hubei province. However, whether these two enormous measures have led to significant changes in the spread of COVID-19 cases remains unclear. METHODS: We analyzed the available data on the development of confirmed domestic and international COVID-19 cases before and after lockdown measures. We evaluated the correlation of domestic air traffic to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determined the growth curves of COVID-19 cases within China before and after lockdown as well as after changes in COVID-19 diagnostic criteria. RESULTS: Our findings indicate a significant increase in doubling time from 2 days (95% CI: 1.9-2.6) to 4 days (95% CI: 3.5-4.3), after imposing lockdown. A further increase is detected after changing diagnostic and testing methodology to 19.3 (95% CI: 15.1-26.3), respectively. Moreover, the correlation between domestic air traffic and COVID-19 spread became weaker following lockdown (before lockdown: r = 0.98, P < 0.05 vs after lockdown: r = 0.91, P = NS). CONCLUSIONS: A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seems to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.
  • |*Quarantine[MESH]
  • |Aircraft[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |China/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology/*prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Pandemics/*prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology/*prevention & control[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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