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10.1126/science.abb3221

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1126/science.abb3221
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32179701!7164387!32179701
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32179701      Science 2020 ; 368 (6490): 489-493
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  • Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) #MMPMID32179701
  • Li R; Pei S; Chen B; Song Y; Zhang T; Yang W; Shaman J
  • Science 2020[May]; 368 (6490): 489-493 PMID32179701show ga
  • Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)] infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here, we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model, and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate that 86% of all infections were undocumented [95% credible interval (CI): 82-90%] before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. The transmission rate of undocumented infections per person was 55% the transmission rate of documented infections (95% CI: 46-62%), yet, because of their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the source of 79% of the documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicate that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
  • |*Models, Theoretical[MESH]
  • |Bayes Theorem[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |China[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*diagnosis/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Epidemiological Monitoring[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Missed Diagnosis/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*diagnosis/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Prevalence[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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