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.jpg): Failed to open stream: No such file or directory in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 117 J+Neurosci
2017 ; 37
(36
): 8625-8634
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When Brain Beats Behavior: Neuroforecasting Crowdfunding Outcomes
#MMPMID28821681
Genevsky A
; Yoon C
; Knutson B
J Neurosci
2017[Sep]; 37
(36
): 8625-8634
PMID28821681
show ga
Although traditional economic and psychological theories imply that individual
choice best scales to aggregate choice, primary components of choice reflected in
neural activity may support even more generalizable forecasts. Crowdfunding
represents a significant and growing platform for funding new and unique
projects, causes, and products. To test whether neural activity could forecast
market-level crowdfunding outcomes weeks later, 30 human subjects (14 female)
decided whether to fund proposed projects described on an Internet crowdfunding
website while undergoing scanning with functional magnetic resonance imaging.
Although activity in both the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) and medial prefrontal
cortex predicted individual choices to fund on a trial-to-trial basis in the
neuroimaging sample, only NAcc activity generalized to forecast market funding
outcomes weeks later on the Internet. Behavioral measures from the neuroimaging
sample, however, did not forecast market funding outcomes. This pattern of
associations was replicated in a second study. These findings demonstrate that a
subset of the neural predictors of individual choice can generalize to forecast
market-level crowdfunding outcomes-even better than choice itself.SIGNIFICANCE
STATEMENT Forecasting aggregate behavior with individual neural data has proven
elusive; even when successful, neural forecasts have not historically supplanted
behavioral forecasts. In the current research, we find that neural responses can
forecast market-level choice and outperform behavioral measures in a novel
Internet crowdfunding context. Targeted as well as model-free analyses
convergently indicated that nucleus accumbens activity can support aggregate
forecasts. Beyond providing initial evidence for neuropsychological processes
implicated in crowdfunding choices, these findings highlight the ability of
neural features to forecast aggregate choice, which could inform applications
relevant to business and policy.
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