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2017 ; 13
(2
): e1005364
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Two dynamic regimes in the human gut microbiome
#MMPMID28222117
Gibbons SM
; Kearney SM
; Smillie CS
; Alm EJ
PLoS Comput Biol
2017[Feb]; 13
(2
): e1005364
PMID28222117
show ga
The gut microbiome is a dynamic system that changes with host development,
health, behavior, diet, and microbe-microbe interactions. Prior work on gut
microbial time series has largely focused on autoregressive models (e.g.
Lotka-Volterra). However, we show that most of the variance in microbial time
series is non-autoregressive. In addition, we show how community state-clustering
is flawed when it comes to characterizing within-host dynamics and that more
continuous methods are required. Most organisms exhibited stable, mean-reverting
behavior suggestive of fixed carrying capacities and abundant taxa were largely
shared across individuals. This mean-reverting behavior allowed us to apply
sparse vector autoregression (sVAR)-a multivariate method developed for
econometrics-to model the autoregressive component of gut community dynamics. We
find a strong phylogenetic signal in the non-autoregressive co-variance from our
sVAR model residuals, which suggests niche filtering. We show how changes in diet
are also non-autoregressive and that Operational Taxonomic Units strongly
correlated with dietary variables have much less of an autoregressive component
to their variance, which suggests that diet is a major driver of microbial
dynamics. Autoregressive variance appears to be driven by multi-day recovery from
frequent facultative anaerobe blooms, which may be driven by fluctuations in
luminal redox. Overall, we identify two dynamic regimes within the human gut
microbiota: one likely driven by external environmental fluctuations, and the
other by internal processes.