Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
2018[Mar]; 115
(11
): 2600-2606
PMID29531091
show ga
Progress in science relies in part on generating hypotheses with existing
observations and testing hypotheses with new observations. This distinction
between postdiction and prediction is appreciated conceptually but is not
respected in practice. Mistaking generation of postdictions with testing of
predictions reduces the credibility of research findings. However, ordinary
biases in human reasoning, such as hindsight bias, make it hard to avoid this
mistake. An effective solution is to define the research questions and analysis
plan before observing the research outcomes-a process called preregistration.
Preregistration distinguishes analyses and outcomes that result from predictions
from those that result from postdictions. A variety of practical strategies are
available to make the best possible use of preregistration in circumstances that
fall short of the ideal application, such as when the data are preexisting.
Services are now available for preregistration across all disciplines,
facilitating a rapid increase in the practice. Widespread adoption of
preregistration will increase distinctiveness between hypothesis generation and
hypothesis testing and will improve the credibility of research findings.
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