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2016 ; 121
(9
): 6847-6861
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The phenology of Arctic Ocean surface warming
#MMPMID27867789
Steele M
; Dickinson S
J Geophys Res Oceans
2016[Sep]; 121
(9
): 6847-6861
PMID27867789
show ga
In this work, we explore the seasonal relationships (i.e., the phenology) between
sea ice retreat, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric heat fluxes in
the Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean, using satellite and reanalysis data. We
find that where ice retreats early in most years, maximum summertime SSTs are
usually warmer, relative to areas with later retreat. For any particular year, we
find that anomalously early ice retreat generally leads to anomalously warm SSTs.
However, this relationship is weak in the Chukchi Sea, where ocean advection
plays a large role. It is also weak where retreat in a particular year happens
earlier than usual, but still relatively late in the season, primarily because
atmospheric heat fluxes are weak at that time. This result helps to explain the
very different ocean warming responses found in two recent years with extreme ice
retreat, 2007 and 2012. We also find that the timing of ice retreat impacts the
date of maximum SST, owing to a change in the ocean surface buoyancy and momentum
forcing that occurs in early August that we term the Late Summer Transition
(LST). After the LST, enhanced mixing of the upper ocean leads to cooling of the
ocean surface even while atmospheric heat fluxes are still weakly downward. Our
results indicate that in the near-term, earlier ice retreat is likely to cause
enhanced ocean surface warming in much of the Arctic Ocean, although not where
ice retreat still occurs late in the season.
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