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The costs and benefits of positive illusions
#MMPMID26175698
Makridakis S
; Moleskis A
Front Psychol
2015[]; 6
(?): 859
PMID26175698
show ga
Positive illusions are associated with unrealistic optimism about the future and
an inflated assessment of one's abilities. They are prevalent in normal life and
are considered essential for maintaining a healthy mental state, although, there
are disagreements to the extent to which people demonstrate these positive
illusions and whether they are beneficial or not. But whatever the situation, it
is hard to dismiss their existence and their positive and/or negative influence
on human behavior and decision making in general. Prominent among illusions is
that of control, that is "the tendency for people to overestimate their ability
to control events." This paper describes positive illusions, their potential
benefits but also quantifies their costs in five specific fields (gambling, stock
and other markets, new firms and startups, preventive medicine and wars). It is
organized into three parts. First the psychological reasons giving rise to
positive illusions are described and their likely harm and benefits stated.
Second, their negative consequences are presented and their costs are quantified
in five areas seriously affected with emphasis to those related to the illusion
of control that seems to dominate those of unrealistic optimism. The costs
involved are huge and serious efforts must be undertaken to understand their
enormity and steps taken to avoid them in the future. Finally, there is a
concluding section where the challenges related to positive illusions are noted
and directions for future research are presented.
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