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The Changing Nonlinear Relationship between Income and Terrorism
#MMPMID28579636
Enders W
; Hoover GA
; Sandler T
J Conflict Resolut
2016[Mar]; 60
(2
): 195-225
PMID28579636
show ga
This article reinvestigates the relationship between real per capita gross
domestic product (GDP) and terrorism. We devise a terrorism Lorenz curve to show
that domestic and transnational terrorist attacks are each more concentrated in
middle-income countries, thereby suggesting a nonlinear income-terrorism
relationship. Moreover, this point of concentration shifted to lower income
countries after the rising influence of the religious fundamentalist and
nationalist/separatist terrorists in the early 1990s. For transnational terrorist
attacks, this shift characterized not only the attack venue but also the
perpetrators' nationality. The article then uses nonlinear smooth transition
regressions to establish the relationship between real per capita GDP and
terrorism for eight alternative terrorism samples, accounting for venue,
perpetrators' nationality, terrorism type, and the period. Our nonlinear
estimates are shown to be favored over estimates using linear or quadratic income
determinants of terrorism. These nonlinear estimates are robust to additional
controls.