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Spread of Zika virus in the Americas
#MMPMID28442561
Zhang Q
; Sun K
; Chinazzi M
; Pastore Y Piontti A
; Dean NE
; Rojas DP
; Merler S
; Mistry D
; Poletti P
; Rossi L
; Bray M
; Halloran ME
; Longini IM Jr
; Vespignani A
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
2017[May]; 114
(22
): E4334-E4343
PMID28442561
show ga
We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of
the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal
resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic,
temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of
ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible
interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for
several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is
characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity,
attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics
and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number
of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide
estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in
empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed
at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it
can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne
epidemics.
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