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English Wikipedia
Reconsidering Health Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident
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2015[Jan]; 13
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The Chernobyl accident led to major human suffering caused by the evacuation and
other counter-measures. However, the direct health consequences of the
accident-related radiation exposures, besides the acute effects and small number
of thyroid cancers, have not been observed. This absence is challenged by some
influential groups affecting public policies who claim that the true extent of
radiogenic health consequences is covered up. We consider such claims. The most
conservative (in this case - overestimating) linear no-threshold hypothesis was
used to calculate excess cancer expectations for cleanup workers, the population
of the contaminated areas and the global population. Statistical estimations were
performed to verify whether such expected excess was detectable. The calculated
cancer excess for each group is much less than uncertainties in number of cancer
cases in epidemiological studies. Therefore the absence of detected radiation
carcinogenesis is in full correspondence with the most conservative a priori
expectations. Regarding the cover-up claims, rational choice analysis was
performed. Such analysis shows that these claims are ill-founded. The present
overcautious attitude to radiological hazards should be corrected in order to
mitigate the present suffering and to avoid such suffering in the future.