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2020 ; 287
(ä): 198098
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Phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses of SARS-CoV-2
#MMPMID32687861
Nie Q
; Li X
; Chen W
; Liu D
; Chen Y
; Li H
; Li D
; Tian M
; Tan W
; Zai J
Virus Res
2020[Oct]; 287
(ä): 198098
PMID32687861
show ga
To investigate the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the current
COVID-19 outbreak, a total of 112 genomes of SARS-CoV-2 strains sampled from
China and 12 other countries with sampling dates between 24 December 2019 and 9
February 2020 were analyzed. We performed phylogenetic, split network,
likelihood-mapping, model comparison, and phylodynamic analyses of the genomes.
Based on Bayesian time-scaled phylogenetic analysis with the best-fitting
combination models, we estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor
(TMRCA) and evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2 to be 12 November 2019 (95 % BCI: 11
October 2019 and 09 December 2019) and 9.90 × 10(-4) substitutions per site per
year (95 % BCI: 6.29 × 10(-4)-1.35 × 10(-3)), respectively. Notably, the very low
R(e) estimates of SARS-CoV-2 during the recent sampling period may be the result
of the successful control of the pandemic in China due to extreme societal
lockdown efforts. Our results emphasize the importance of using phylodynamic
analyses to provide insights into the roles of various interventions to limit the
spread of SARS-CoV-2 in China and beyond.
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