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2015 ; 10
(9
): e0137685
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Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters
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PLoS One
2015[]; 10
(9
): e0137685
PMID26352146
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People are optimistic about their prospects relative to others. However, existing
studies can be difficult to interpret because outcomes are not zero-sum. For
example, one person avoiding cancer does not necessitate that another person
develops cancer. Ideally, optimism bias would be evaluated within a closed formal
system to establish with certainty the extent of the bias and the associated
environmental factors, such that optimism bias is demonstrated when a population
is internally inconsistent. Accordingly, we asked NFL fans to predict how many
games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season. Fans, like ESPN
reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team's
prospects. The opposite pattern was found for teams that fans disliked. Optimism
may flourish because year-to-year team results are marked by auto-correlation and
regression to the group mean (i.e., good teams stay good, but bad teams improve).
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