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2020 ; 5
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): ä Nephropedia Template TP
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English Wikipedia
Modelling the pandemic: attuning models to their contexts
#MMPMID32565430
Rhodes T
; Lancaster K
; Lees S
; Parker M
BMJ Glob Health
2020[Jun]; 5
(6
): ä PMID32565430
show ga
The evidence produced in mathematical models plays a key role in shaping policy
decisions in pandemics. A key question is therefore how well pandemic models
relate to their implementation contexts. Drawing on the cases of Ebola and
influenza, we map how sociological and anthropological research contributes in
the modelling of pandemics to consider lessons for COVID-19. We show how models
detach from their implementation contexts through their connections with global
narratives of pandemic response, and how sociological and anthropological
research can help to locate models differently. This potentiates multiple models
of pandemic response attuned to their emerging situations in an iterative and
adaptive science. We propose a more open approach to the modelling of pandemics
which envisages the model as an intervention of deliberation in situations of
evolving uncertainty. This challenges the 'business-as-usual' of evidence-based
approaches in global health by accentuating all science, within and beyond
pandemics, as 'emergent' and 'adaptive'.
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