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2020 ; 11
(1
): 2750
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Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir
#MMPMID32487990
Du Z
; Nugent C
; Galvani AP
; Krug RM
; Meyers LA
Nat Commun
2020[Jun]; 11
(1
): 2750
PMID32487990
show ga
Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000-650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can
reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral,
inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas oseltamivir, an older drug,
inhibits release of virus progeny. Baloxavir blocks virus replication more
rapidly and completely than oseltamivir, reducing the duration of infectiousness.
Hence, early baloxavir treatment may indirectly prevent transmission. Here, we
estimate impacts of ramping up and accelerating baloxavir treatment on
population-level incidence using a new model that links viral load dynamics from
clinical trial data to between-host transmission. We estimate that ~22 million
infections and?>6,000 deaths would have been averted in the 2017-2018 epidemic
season by administering baloxavir to 30% of infected cases within 48?h after
symptom onset. Treatment within 24?h would almost double the impact.
Consequently, scaling up early baloxavir treatment would substantially reduce
influenza morbidity and mortality every year. The development of antivirals
against the SARS-CoV2 virus that function like baloxavir might similarly curtail
transmission and save lives.
|*Epidemics
[MESH]
|Antiviral Agents/pharmacology/*therapeutic use
[MESH]
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