Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Warning: imagejpeg(C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\phplern\32631358
.jpg): Failed to open stream: No such file or directory in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 117 Int+J+Health+Geogr
2020 ; 19
(1
): 25
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
Geostatistical COVID-19 infection risk maps for Portugal
#MMPMID32631358
Azevedo L
; Pereira MJ
; Ribeiro MC
; Soares A
Int J Health Geogr
2020[Jul]; 19
(1
): 25
PMID32631358
show ga
The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has simultaneous time and space
dynamics. This behaviour results from a complex combination of factors, including
social ones, which lead to significant differences in the evolution of the
spatiotemporal pattern between and within countries. Usually, spatial smoothing
techniques are used to map health outcomes, and rarely uncertainty of the spatial
predictions are assessed. As an alternative, we propose to apply direct block
sequential simulation to model the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 infection
risk in mainland Portugal. Given the daily number of infection data provided by
the Portuguese Directorate-General for Health, the daily updates of infection
rates are calculated by municipality and used as experimental data in the
geostatistical simulation. The model considers the uncertainty/error associated
with the size of each municipality's population. The calculation of daily updates
of the infection risk maps results from the median model of one ensemble of 100
geostatistical realizations of daily updates of the infection risk. The ensemble
of geostatistical realizations is also used to calculate the associated spatial
uncertainty of the spatial prediction using the interquartile distance. The risk
maps are updated daily and show the regions with greater risks of infection and
the critical dynamics related to its development over time.