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2017 ; 15
(4
): 373-383
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Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity
#MMPMID28806130
Millett P
; Snyder-Beattie A
Health Secur
2017[Jul]; 15
(4
): 373-383
PMID28806130
show ga
In the decades to come, advanced bioweapons could threaten human existence.
Although the probability of human extinction from bioweapons may be low, the
expected value of reducing the risk could still be large, since such risks
jeopardize the existence of all future generations. We provide an overview of
biotechnological extinction risk, make some rough initial estimates for how
severe the risks might be, and compare the cost-effectiveness of reducing these
extinction-level risks with existing biosecurity work. We find that reducing
human extinction risk can be more cost-effective than reducing smaller-scale
risks, even when using conservative estimates. This suggests that the risks are
not low enough to ignore and that more ought to be done to prevent the worst-case
scenarios.