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2017 ; 1389
(1
): 124-146
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Evolutionary ecology of virus emergence
#MMPMID28036113
Dennehy JJ
Ann N Y Acad Sci
2017[Feb]; 1389
(1
): 124-146
PMID28036113
show ga
The cross-species transmission of viruses into new host populations, termed virus
emergence, is a significant issue in public health, agriculture, wildlife
management, and related fields. Virus emergence requires overlap between host
populations, alterations in virus genetics to permit infection of new hosts, and
adaptation to novel hosts such that between-host transmission is sustainable, all
of which are the purview of the fields of ecology and evolution. A firm
understanding of the ecology of viruses and how they evolve is required for
understanding how and why viruses emerge. In this paper, I address the
evolutionary mechanisms of virus emergence and how they relate to virus ecology.
I argue that, while virus acquisition of the ability to infect new hosts is not
difficult, limited evolutionary trajectories to sustained virus between-host
transmission and the combined effects of mutational meltdown, bottlenecking,
demographic stochasticity, density dependence, and genetic erosion in ecological
sinks limit most emergence events to dead-end spillover infections. Despite the
relative rarity of pandemic emerging viruses, the potential of viruses to search
evolutionary space and find means to spread epidemically and the consequences of
pandemic viruses that do emerge necessitate sustained attention to virus
research, surveillance, prophylaxis, and treatment.
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