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2014 ; 111
(49
): 17356-62
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Dealing with femtorisks in international relations
#MMPMID25404317
Frank AB
; Collins MG
; Levin SA
; Lo AW
; Ramo J
; Dieckmann U
; Kremenyuk V
; Kryazhimskiy A
; Linnerooth-Bayer J
; Ramalingam B
; Roy JS
; Saari DG
; Thurner S
; von Winterfeldt D
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
2014[Dec]; 111
(49
): 17356-62
PMID25404317
show ga
The contemporary global community is increasingly interdependent and confronted
with systemic risks posed by the actions and interactions of actors existing
beneath the level of formal institutions, often operating outside effective
governance structures. Frequently, these actors are human agents, such as rogue
traders or aggressive financial innovators, terrorists, groups of dissidents, or
unauthorized sources of sensitive or secret information about government or
private sector activities. In other instances, influential "actors" take the form
of climate change, communications technologies, or socioeconomic globalization.
Although these individual forces may be small relative to state governments or
international institutions, or may operate on long time scales, the changes they
catalyze can pose significant challenges to the analysis and practice of
international relations through the operation of complex feedbacks and
interactions of individual agents and interconnected systems. We call these
challenges "femtorisks," and emphasize their importance for two reasons. First,
in isolation, they may be inconsequential and semiautonomous; but when embedded
in complex adaptive systems, characterized by individual agents able to change,
learn from experience, and pursue their own agendas, the strategic interaction
between actors can propel systems down paths of increasing, even global,
instability. Second, because their influence stems from complex interactions at
interfaces of multiple systems (e.g., social, financial, political,
technological, ecological, etc.), femtorisks challenge standard approaches to
risk assessment, as higher-order consequences cascade across the boundaries of
socially constructed complex systems. We argue that new approaches to assessing
and managing systemic risk in international relations are required, inspired by
principles of evolutionary theory and development of resilient ecological
systems.
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