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2015 ; 6
(ä): 938
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Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving
#MMPMID26283976
Johnson ED
; Tubau E
Front Psychol
2015[]; 6
(ä): 938
PMID26283976
show ga
Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when
presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a
well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled
individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that
natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian inferences relative to normalized
formats (e.g., probabilities, percentages), both by clarifying logical set-subset
relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study
performance on "transparent" Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally
remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this
representational facilitator (i.e., transparent problem structures) at the
expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the
corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing
Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further
suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from
considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes
text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online
executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge
and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at
identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct vs. incorrect
reasoners depart, and how individual differences might influence this time point.