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10.1038/srep17986

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1038/srep17986
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C4675072!4675072 !26656656
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid26656656
      Sci+Rep 2015 ; 5 (ä): 17986
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  • Circular analysis in complex stochastic systems #MMPMID26656656
  • Valleriani A
  • Sci Rep 2015[Dec]; 5 (ä): 17986 PMID26656656 show ga
  • Ruling out observations can lead to wrong models. This danger occurs unwillingly when one selects observations, experiments, simulations or time-series based on their outcome. In stochastic processes, conditioning on the future outcome biases all local transition probabilities and makes them consistent with the selected outcome. This circular self-consistency leads to models that are inconsistent with physical reality. It is also the reason why models built solely on macroscopic observations are prone to this fallacy.
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