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2016 ; 27
(9
): 2851-9
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Candidate Surrogate End Points for ESRD after AKI
#MMPMID26857682
Grams ME
; Sang Y
; Coresh J
; Ballew SH
; Matsushita K
; Levey AS
; Greene TH
; Molnar MZ
; Szabo Z
; Kalantar-Zadeh K
; Kovesdy CP
J Am Soc Nephrol
2016[Sep]; 27
(9
): 2851-9
PMID26857682
show ga
AKI, a frequently transient condition, is not accepted by the US Food and Drug
Association as an end point for drug registration trials. We assessed whether an
intermediate-term change in eGFR after AKI has a sufficiently strong relationship
with subsequent ESRD to serve as an alternative end point in trials of AKI
prevention and/or treatment. Among 161,185 United States veterans undergoing
major surgery between 2004 and 2011, we characterized in-hospital AKI by Kidney
Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria and decline in eGFR from
prehospitalization to postdischarge time points and quantified associations of
these values with ESRD and mortality over a median of 3.8 years. An eGFR decline
of ?30% at 30, 60, and 90 days after discharge occurred in 3.1%, 2.5%, and 2.6%,
of survivors without AKI and 15.9%, 12.2%, and 11.7%, of survivors with AKI. For
patients with in-hospital AKI compared with those with no AKI and stable eGFR, a
30% decline in eGFR at 30, 60, and 90 days after discharge demonstrated adjusted
hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of ESRD of 5.60 (4.06 to 7.71), 6.42
(4.76 to 8.65), and 7.27 (5.14 to 10.27), with corresponding estimates for 40%
decline in eGFR of 6.98 (5.21 to 9.35), 8.03 (6.11 to 10.56), and 10.95 (8.10 to
14.82). Risks for mortality were smaller but consistent in direction. A 30%-40%
decline in eGFR after AKI could be a surrogate end point for ESRD in trials of
AKI prevention and/or treatment, but additional trial evidence is needed.