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2020 ; 8
(ä): 256
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COVID-19 UK Lockdown Forecasts and R (0)
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Dropkin G
Front Public Health
2020[]; 8
(ä): 256
PMID32574315
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Introduction: The first reported UK case of COVID-19 occurred on 30 January 2020.
A lockdown from 24 March was partially relaxed on 10 May. One model to forecast
disease spread depends on clinical parameters and transmission rates. Output
includes the basic reproduction number R(0) and the log growth rate r in the
exponential phase. Methods: Office for National Statistics data on deaths in
England and Wales is used to estimate r. A likelihood for the transmission
parameters is defined from a gaussian density for r using the mean and standard
error of the estimate. Parameter samples from the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm
lead to an estimate and credible interval for R(0) and forecasts for cases and
deaths. Results: The UK initial log growth rate is r = 0.254 with s.e. 0.004.
R(0) = 6.94 with 95% CI (6.52, 7.39). In a 12 week lockdown from 24 March with
transmission parameters reduced throughout to 5% of their previous values, peaks
of around 90,000 severely and 25,000 critically ill patients, and 44,000
cumulative deaths are expected by 16 June. With transmission rising from 5% in
mid-April to reach 30%, 50,000 deaths and 475,000 active cases are expected in
mid-June. Had such a lockdown begun on 17 March, around 30,000 (28,000, 32,000)
fewer cumulative deaths would be expected by 9 June. Discussion: The R(0)
estimate is compatible with some international estimates but over twice the value
quoted by the UK government. An earlier lockdown could have saved many thousands
of lives.
|*Forecasting
[MESH]
|*Models, Statistical
[MESH]
|Basic Reproduction Number/*statistics & numerical data
[MESH]
|COVID-19/epidemiology/*transmission
[MESH]
|Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data
[MESH]
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