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2015 ; 52
(1
): 3-31
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Burglar Target Selection: A Cross-national Comparison
#MMPMID25866418
Townsley M
; Birks D
; Bernasco W
; Ruiter S
; Johnson SD
; White G
; Baum S
J Res Crime Delinq
2015[Feb]; 52
(1
): 3-31
PMID25866418
show ga
OBJECTIVES: This study builds on research undertaken by Bernasco and Nieuwbeerta
and explores the generalizability of a theoretically derived offender target
selection model in three cross-national study regions. METHODS: Taking a discrete
spatial choice approach, we estimate the impact of both environment- and
offender-level factors on residential burglary placement in the Netherlands, the
United Kingdom, and Australia. Combining cleared burglary data from all study
regions in a single statistical model, we make statistical comparisons between
environments. RESULTS: In all three study regions, the likelihood an offender
selects an area for burglary is positively influenced by proximity to their home,
the proportion of easily accessible targets, and the total number of targets
available. Furthermore, in two of the three study regions, juvenile offenders
under the legal driving age are significantly more influenced by target proximity
than adult offenders. Post hoc tests indicate the magnitudes of these impacts
vary significantly between study regions. CONCLUSIONS: While burglary target
selection strategies are consistent with opportunity-based explanations of
offending, the impact of environmental context is significant. As such, the
approach undertaken in combining observations from multiple study regions may aid
criminology scholars in assessing the generalizability of observed findings
across multiple environments.