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Black-swan events in animal populations #MMPMID28270622
Anderson SC; Branch TA; Cooper AB; Dulvy NK
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017[Mar]; 114 (12): 3252-7 PMID28270622show ga
Black swans?statistically improbable events with profound consequences?happen more often than expected in financial, social, and natural systems. Our work demonstrates the rare but systematic presence of black-swan events in animal populations around the world (mostly birds, mammals, and insects). These events are predominantly downward, implying that unexpected population crashes occur more frequently than increases. Black-swan events are not driven by life history (e.g., lifespan) but by external causes such as extreme winters and disease. Ignoring the presence of downward black swans may severely underestimate extinction risk in animal populations, particularly under a changing climate, where such extreme events are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude.