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Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world #MMPMID38748800
de Winter NJ; Tindall J; Johnson ALA; Goudsmit-Harzevoort B; Wichern N; Kaskes P; Claeys P; Huygen F; van Leeuwen S; Metcalfe B; Bakker P; Goolaerts S; Wesselingh F; Ziegler M
Sci Adv 2024[May]; 10 (20): eadl6717 PMID38748800show ga
Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3 degrees C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3 degrees +/- 1.0 degrees C) compared to winter (+2.5 degrees +/- 1.5 degrees C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe's future.